A Linear Intensity Model to Investigate the Causal Relation Between Calabrian and North-Aegean Earthquake Sequences     

Giuseppe De  Natale  Fabio Musmeci†  Aldo Zollo 《Geophysical Journal International》1988,95(2):285-293

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随机扩散水质模型研究          下载免费PDF全文

彭勤文 《水科学进展》2006,17(1):113-115

考虑湖泊中影响总磷沉积过程的众多生态因子的变化过程,假定湖泊中总磷沉积过程由标准布朗运动驱动,建立了一个总磷浓度的随机扩散方程,推广确定性富营养化Vollenweider水质模型为随机扩散模型,获得了总磷浓度过程的解析解,进而求出了总磷浓度过程的均值和方差,指出了一种依据沉积系数调控湖泊中总磷浓度的方法。模型被应用于巢湖总磷浓度过程的模拟。  相似文献   

考虑土-结构相互作用和岩土参数不确定性的核电厂结构地震响应分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

李忠献  李忠诚  梁万顺 《地震工程与工程振动》2006,26(2):143-148

针对核电厂结构,在考虑土-结构相互作用(SSI)的情况下进行随机地震反应分析,探讨地基岩土参数的不确定性对反应堆厂房楼层反应谱(FRS)的影响。运用ANSYS软件模块建立核电厂(NPP)结构有限元模型,通过设置边界弹簧单元和阻尼装置来考虑SSI效应;并且通过设置具有概率意义的弹簧刚度和阻尼系数,来模拟土特性参数的不确定性。随机响应分析与确定性分析的结果对比,揭示了岩性地基条件下SSI效应对核电厂FRS的影响以及地基岩土参数不确定性对FRS的影响程度。研究表明,在岩性地基条件下,亦不应忽略SSI效应;考虑SSI效应的随机分析模型同确定性模型相比,二者的分析结果较为接近,两方法都可用于NPP的FRS敏感性分析评估之中,并可进行相互比照。  相似文献   

An approximate analytical solution for the deposition of heavy particles released from an elevated line source   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

T. Bouvet  J. D. Wilson 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,119(1):1-18

This work re-examines and further develops an analytical solution for the deposition swath of heavy particles released in the atmosphere from an elevated source over uniform terrain, correcting the particle diffusivity for the crossing trajectory effect. The revised (approximate) analytical solution proves to be accurate within 20% over a wide range of micrometeorological conditions and particle size, despite its neglect of the turbulence component of the deposition flux. It compares very satisfactorily with experimental data and with the simulations of a Lagrangian stochastic model, provided the variable U(H)/w _g ≤7 (ratio of the mean horizontal wind speed at source height to the particle settling velocity). In this domain of validity, simple formulae relating the statistics of the deposition swath to U(H)/w _g are derived.  相似文献   

A Large-Eddy Simulation and Lagrangian Stochastic Study of Heavy Particle Dispersion in the Convective Boundary Layer   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4  

Xuhui Cai  Rui Zhang  Yan LI 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,120(3):413-435

Large-eddy simulation and Lagrangian stochastic dispersion models were used to study heavy particle dispersion in the convective boundary layer (CBL). The effects of various geostrophic winds, particle diameters, and subgrid-scale (SGS) turbulence were investigated. Results showed an obvious depression in the vertical dispersion of heavy particles in the CBL and major vertical stratification in the distribution of particle concentrations, relative to the passive dispersion. Stronger geostrophic winds tended to increase the dispersion of heavy particles in the lower CBL. The SGS turbulence, particularly near the surface, markedly influenced the dispersion of heavy particles in the CBL. For reference, simulations using passive particles were also conducted; these simulation results agreed well with results from previous convective tank experiments and numerical simulations.  相似文献   

Turbulence Scale Dependence of the Richardson Constant in Lagrangian Stochastic Models     

A. Maurizi  G. Pagnini  F. Tampieri 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,118(1):55-68

We investigate the relative dispersion properties of the well-mixed class of Lagrangian stochastic models. Dimensional analysis shows that, given a model in the class, its properties depend solely on a non-dimensional parameter, which measures the relative weight of Lagrangian-to-Eulerian scales. This parameter is formulated in terms of Kolmogorov constants, and model properties are then studied by modifying its value in a range that contains the experimental variability. Large variations are found for the quantity, g* = 2gC₀^{− 1}, where g is the Richardson constant.  相似文献   

Optimization of nonconventional wells under uncertainty using statistical proxies     

Vincent Artus  Louis J. Durlofsky  Jérôme Onwunalu  Khalid Aziz 《Computational Geosciences》2006,10(4):389-404

The determination of the optimal type and placement of a nonconventional well in a heterogeneous reservoir represents a challenging optimization problem. This determination is significantly more complicated if uncertainty in the reservoir geology is included in the optimization. In this study, a genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the deployment of nonconventional wells. Geological uncertainty is accounted for by optimizing over multiple reservoir models (realizations) subject to a prescribed risk attitude. To reduce the excessive computational requirements of the base method, a new statistical proxy (which provides fast estimates of the objective function) based on cluster analysis is introduced into the optimization process. This proxy provides an estimate of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the scenario performance, which enables the quantification of proxy uncertainty. Knowledge of the proxy-based performance estimate in conjunction with the proxy CDF enables the systematic selection of the most appropriate scenarios for full simulation. Application of the overall method for the optimization of monobore and dual-lateral well placement demonstrates the performance of the hybrid optimization procedure. Specifically, it is shown that by simulating only 10% or 20% of the scenarios (as determined by application of the proxy), optimization results very close to those achieved by simulating all cases are obtained.  相似文献   

Reservoir description using dynamic parameterisation selection with a combined stochastic and gradient search     

Lars Kristian Nielsen  Sam Subbey  Mike Christie  Trond Mannseth 《Computational Geosciences》2006,10(3):321-342

There is a correspondence between flow in a reservoir and large scale permeability trends. This correspondence can be derived by constraining reservoir models using observed production data. One of the challenges in deriving the permeability distribution of a field using production data involves determination of the scale of resolution of the permeability. The Adaptive Multiscale Estimation (AME) seeks to overcome the problems related to choosing the resolution of the permeability field by a dynamic parameterisation selection. The standard AME uses a gradient algorithm in solving several optimisation problems with increasing permeability resolution. This paper presents a hybrid algorithm which combines a gradient search and a stochastic algorithm to improve the robustness of the dynamic parameterisation selection. At low dimension, we use the stochastic algorithm to generate several optimised models. We use information from all these produced models to find new optimal refinements, and start out new optimisations with several unequally suggested parameterisations. At higher dimensions we change to a gradient-type optimiser, where the initial solution is chosen from the ensemble of models suggested by the stochastic algorithm. The selection is based on a predefined criterion. We demonstrate the robustness of the hybrid algorithm on sample synthetic cases, which most of them were considered insolvable using the standard AME algorithm.  相似文献   

鄂尔多斯盆地西峰油田白马南特低渗岩性油藏储层地质建模   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

李红  柳益群 《沉积学报》2007,25(6):954-960

以鄂尔多斯盆地西峰油田白马南长81砂岩油藏为例，应用随机序贯高斯模拟法（SUS）和序贯指示模拟法（SIS）建立研究目标的储层地质模型，进而探讨了在特低渗岩性油藏中相对高渗透储层形成的控制因素。认为长81油藏储层的形成主要受控于沉积作用；成岩作用对改善储层物性及油气的运聚起了重要的作用。砂体的三维模拟结果显示主砂体位于研究区西部，呈西南-东北向展布。储层物性参数的三维模拟也表明优质储层主要分布在主砂体带上长石溶蚀相和绿泥石薄膜胶结成岩相区。  相似文献   

多年冻土区桩基础桥墩随机地震反应分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

虞庐松  严松宏  陈兴冲  高峰 《世界地震工程》2007,23(1):12-16

将随机振动理论、粘弹性边界条件的二维波动法以及结构动力分析有限元法结合起来，考虑场地地震动为零均值的高斯平稳随机过程，对青藏铁路多年冻土区桩基础桥墩进行了随机地震反应分析，计算了9度地震作用下桥墩随机地震响应最大值的均值和均方差，分析了冻土层及桥墩高度对桥墩随机地震响应的影响。  相似文献